BY 2100, CLIMATE CHANGE AND AIR POLLUTION COULD CAUSE UP TO 30 MILLION DEATHS PER YEAR. THIS SCENARIO, PROPOSED BY SCHOLARS AT THE MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR CHEMISTRY IN MAINZ (GERMANY), HIGHLIGHTS A FUTURE IN WHICH ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ARE DRAMATICALLY INTERWERED WITH RISKS TO GLOBAL HEALTH. UNLIKE OTHER HEALTH EMERGENCIES, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMOG REPRESENT A SLOW BUT INEXORABLE THREAT
Climate change and smog: an increasingly concrete threat
The increase in global temperatures brings with it more frequent, intense and long-lasting heat waves, which particularly affect the elderly, children and people with chronic pathologies. These extreme events put pressure on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, causing a significant increase in heart attacks, strokes and respiratory failure.
.«Climate change is not just a phenomenon that concerns the future: it is already happening and it is already killing.” underlines Andrea Pozzer, of the Max Planck Institute, Germany.
«By the end of the century, in the most likely scenario, deaths related to extreme temperatures will reach 10.8 million’year, a seven-fold increase compared to 2000″. Added to this are the 19.5 million deaths caused by air pollution, five times more than at the beginning of the millennium. Behind these figures there are stories of shattered lives, overburdened healthcare systems and societies forced to deal with challenges never seen before. But let’s get to the heart of the matter.
Smog, a silent killer
Air pollution, often called a “silent killer”, affects every breath we take. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and other pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and ground-level ozone enter the lungs, causing chronic inflammation and damaging tissue. Research conducted by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, published in Nature Communications, indicates that annual deaths attributable to air pollution could increase significantly by the end of the century. In 2000, it was estimated that approximately 4.1 million people died each year due to exposure to air pollutants. According to the study’s projections, this number could rise to 19.5 million annual deaths by 2100. This crisis is particularly severe in regions with high population density and rapid industrialization, such as South and East Asia.
In low-income countries, the phenomenon is aggravated by other factors: the lack of adequate infrastructure, such as cooling or heating systems, amplifies the effects of extreme temperatures. At the same time, rising temperatures favor the spread of infectious diseases, such as malaria and dengue, to areas where they were previously unknown.
Smog is a democratic threat: it knows no social or geographical boundaries
Unlike the impacts of climate change, the effects of smog do not spare even high-income countries. In European and North American cities, vehicular traffic and industry continue to be major sources of fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide, with direct consequences on the health of citizens. «Smog is a democratic threat: it knows no social or geographical boundaries.” he states Jean Sciaredel Climate and Atmosphere Research Center.
Children: innocent victims of climate change and air pollution
In children, these effects are particularly worrying: smog can alter normal lung development, reducing breathing capacity and increasing vulnerability to lung infections throughout life.
At the same time, cardiovascular problems represent another related health emergency. Air pollutants, penetrating the circulatory system, promote inflammation and the accumulation of atherosclerotic plaques, increasing the risk of hypertension, cardiac arrhythmias, heart attacks and strokes, but also chronic diseases such as asthma, bronchitis, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) and lung cancer.
Added to this are extreme temperatures, one of the most evident manifestations of climate change, which amplify the stress load on the heart, causing an increase in hospitalizations and cardiovascular mortality, especially during heat waves.
Climate change and smog: repercussions also on the central nervous system and mental health
The repercussions do not stop at the respiratory and cardiovascular systems, but also extend to the central nervous system, with consequences that are only recently emerging in their entirety. Epidemiological and experimental studies suggest a link between chronic exposure to air pollution and an increased risk of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson. This link is attributed to systemic inflammation and the accumulation of toxic particles in the brain, phenomena that accelerate cognitive decline, especially in older adults. This is a still expanding field of research, but already enough to cause serious concern.
Mental health is also heavily affected by the combined impact of smog and climate change. Extreme climate events, such as hurricanes, floods and heat waves, cause acute psychological stress, increasing the incidence of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. At the same time, daily exposure to high levels of air pollution contributes to chronic psychological distress, often amplified in densely populated urban areas, where smog becomes a constant and oppressive presence.
Increase in infant mortality
Finally, the increase in infant mortality represents one of the most tragic and heartbreaking effects. Pregnant women exposed to air pollutants and high temperatures face a greater risk of complications, including premature births and low birth weight babies. Such factors not only compromise neonatal survival, but can have lasting effects on child health and development, perpetuating a cycle of vulnerability and inequality.
Mitigation and solutions: urgent and global action
To address this double crisis, immediate and comprehensive measures are needed. Mitigating climate change requires a transition towards renewable energy sources, the progressive abandonment of fossil fuels and the adoption of policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, the fight against smog must include stricter regulations for industry and traffic, incentives for sustainable mobility and the strengthening of urban green spaces.
«L’implementation of quality monitoring programs’air and ambitious climate policies is no longer a’option, but a necessity”, Sciare points out. Furthermore, it is essential to increase investments in medical research and healthcare infrastructure to prepare to manage future waves of diseases caused by these environmental factors.
Save lives, protect the planet
The future envisaged by the Max Planck Institute study is a call to action that cannot be ignored. Climate change and air pollution are two sides of the same coin, a threat that spares no one and which requires immediate and coordinated responses at a global level.
However, all is not lost. Every mitigation effort can make a difference, not only to reduce emissions and limit global warming, but also to safeguard the health of millions of people. Our generation has a historic responsibility to act now, not only for our present, but to deliver a healthier and more livable world to future generations. As projections show, the price of inaction will be paid in human lives. Acting today means guaranteeing a tomorrow.