ChinaHe ‘colossus‘of the solar energy: eIn 2024, 23% more photovoltaic capacity will be installed than the year beforeaccording to a study by think tank Ember. This technology is ‘growing faster than expected’ and even exceeding industry expectations.
After one 2023 is a record for photovoltaic energy in the world, this year too the aim is to achieve maximumexceeding most industry forecasts. At the current rate of solar capacity installation, 593 GW would be installed globally by the end of 2024, up 29% from the previous year.
This follows from an analysis of the think tank energetic manwhich is a reminder that this makes the numbers even more striking The installed capacity has already increased by 87% last year.
“Once again the solar energy growing faster than expected, while consolidating itself as the cheapest source of electricity in the world»says Euan Graham, electricity data analyst at Ember.
In addition to significant growth in ‘established markets’ such as China or the United States, Others have strongly joined the sun club, including Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. On the other hand, this contrasts with slower growth in Europe, especially in Germany and the United Kingdom.
China will install more than half of the world’s solar energy capacity
The case of China is exceptional. The Asian giant is expected to strike on its own Add 334 GW by year end, 56% of the world’s installed solar capacity. It thus confirms the trend of recent years: in 2023 it installed more solar panels than the entire world had in operation in 2022.
The United States is not far behind, with installations up 55% in the first six months of the year compared to the same period in 2023. In Europe, Italy stands out with an increase of 41%While Europe’s top solar powerhouse, Germany, is growing more slowly (11%), the country has already surpassed its target for this year and is approaching the 2026 target set out in its recent new climate plan.
It also emphasizes India, a country heavily dependent on coal, has recently joined the photovoltaic wavebut which in this first half of 2024 has already surpassed everything it installed last year.
To perform these predictions, Ember takes data from January to July this year for 15 countries and calculates how much will be installed in the second half if the pace is maintained. For the rest of the markets, it analyzes solar panel exports from China – the world’s leading producer – and estimates that they will be installed during 2024.
Solar energy will break all records in 2024
Growth is happening so fast, they emphasize, that it has been forced to do so analysts have to adjust their forecasts upwards again and again, as is the case with that of the International Energy Agency, a reference for the global energy sector and which usually falls short when it comes to solar energy.
This is progressing faster than other sources, such as coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. and that countries committed to staying behind at the last climate summits.
According to the analysis, the This year alone, installed PV capacity will likely exceed all the coal capacity added since 2010 (540 GW). “This accelerated pace brings us closer to ambitious climate goals, but it is necessary to keep moving quickly to reach the 1.5ºC target,” they emphasize from Ember.
One of these targets is the one achieved at the last climate summit in Dubai, held at the end of 2023, in which the countries agreed tripling the target for installing renewable energy between now and the end of this decade, so that they produce a quarter of the world’s energy.
Forecasts such as those from the business association SolarPower Europe or those from Bloomberg predict that at this rate the by the end of the decade it will be possible to triple solar capacity and thus comply with the international agreements that have been made.
Spain: A total of 7,489 MW was installed in 2023
In parallel with the study of EmberLast Wednesday another report came to light, that of the photovoltaic employers’ organization UNEFin this case with data corresponding to 2023. A total of 7,489 MW was installed that year, 5.7% more than in 2022. consolidating photovoltaics as the technology with the most installed power in Spain, with 32,488 MW. in total.
Spain, which is the second largest European photovoltaic market, breaks the annual installation record. At a global level, they point out that solar photovoltaics was the most installed energy source (renewable and non-renewable) in the world last year.
By UNEF They also emphasize the increase in the weight of Spanish photovoltaics in the energy mix, which increased by 40% last yearwith an average of 13.6%.