Disaddative forecast: At the end of the century in the EU there will be more fires and these will be more serious

The holder cannot be eloquent and confirmed with a study where the prognosis is aimed at Forest fires will double and will be even more serious in the European Union by the end of the present 21st century. A future reality that will above all will be more pronounced in the case of countries peeling to the Mediterranean Sea.

«We lose hundreds of lives and billions of euros in the fires. We have to learn to live with fire and Adapt to society for this growing challenge«, Say those responsible for this analysis under the name of «Forest fires in transformation. Political options for a Europe with fire culture and fire adapted », which has been presented on Monday by the Scientific Advisory Council of the European Academies (EASAC).

A consequence that, as these same professionals detail in this study, will be aggravated year after year after the negative consequences of climate change, droughts, urban expansion and change of land uses.

More fires and more serious in European land

Climate change, droughts, urban expansion and Change of soil uses They will cause at the end of the century there are twice as much forest fires in the European Union, especially in the Mediterraneanand the community block needs to move from a policy focused on suppression to an adaptation.

It is the main conclusion of the report «forest fires in transformation. Political options for a Europe with fire culture and fire adapted », presented on Monday by the Scientific Advisory Council of the European Academies (EASAC), which integrates academies from 25 EU countries, more United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway.

«We lose hundreds of lives and billions of euros in the fires. We have to learn to live with fire and adapt to society for this growing challenge, ”according to the professor and president of EASAC, András Báredi, in the representation in Brussels of the German State of North-Westfalia, where the study was presented.

The data show that Every year 60,000 fires are registered in Europe, which are about 2,000 million euros in annual economic losses and sweep an area equivalent to double the surface of Luxembourg. The first cause of this reality is climate change and the change in soil uses, so working in mitigation and adaptation in the climate field is fundamental. But it is not the only thing that can be done.

The report indicates that “The current EU policies prioritize suppression”. It emphasizes that “the growing intensity of the fires” shows that it is necessary to “increase investment in a proactive fire management, together with mitigation and climatic adaptation, prioritizing the reduction in damage to the minimization of the burned surface.”

Although the fight against fire is essential, it is also to anticipate the events that science detects that it will occur with investment policies in prevention and adaptation that privileges “a proactive approach focused on landscape management, restoration and literacy in fires is essential.”

Adapt to the fire to prevent forest fires

It is also needed, according to forest fire experts who have written the report, A European integrated framework in awareness and a change in behavior, as well as incorporate fire risk analysis in biodiversity or reforestation policies, in addition to get used To live with fire.

“The fire is not always a catastrophe, it is part of the ecosystem,” said Hungarian Professor Orsoula Valkó, who added that “the fire can be prevented with fire,” burningly and controlled areas that could burn without control and devastate large surfaces.

Another way of living in security is to ensure that wetlands and basles are in good condition, because they are important for ecosystems and store a large amount of CO2, which They release the atmosphere if they burn.

Fires also in urban areas

A novel aspect of the study is the Urban Forest Fire Risksuch as the one registered last January in Los Angeles (USA), with estimated financial costs of between 75,000 and 131,000 million dollars.

70 % of Europe is at risk due to this type of catastrophes in areas with a lot of human activity that can generate ignition in places close to areas with vegetation that can function as fuel.

“We have not experienced many in Europe yet, but we will come and have to prepare,” said Natural Resources Management Professor Thomas Elmqvist, who has also served the example of the massive fires of 2023 in Canada to highlight that they were ten times larger than the means available to suffocate them.

“We have a great emergency response capacity” with firefighters, helicopters or aircraft, but “not planning and investment in adaptation,” he insisted.

This phenomenon can be fought from urban planning, leaving enough green space between real estate in the new neighborhoods, identifying vulnerable areas and guaranteeing good maintenance of small patios and private gardens.

Awareness to avoid more fires

“If you invest in prevention and avoid problems, people ask: Why do we spend so much money if nothing happens?” The European Center for Joint Research, Alfredo Branco, lamented, who encouraged to find “the way to make it very clear for everyone that every euro spent in prevention is worth it.”

The expert of the Coordinated Emergency Response Center of the European Commission, Héctor Alfaro, suggested that to solve that paradox it must “Make prevention visible.” «When there is a fire we can always see what the potential of fire is. If we identify and say: 5,000 hectares have been burned, but the potential was 100,000, we can teach people the importance of prevention, ”he concluded. EFE / ECOTICIAS.com