ITALY, A SEISMICLY FRAGILE LAND, HAS EXPERIENCED DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKES WHICH HAVE LEFT DEEP SIGNS ON THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LEVEL, WITH DAMAGES ESTIMATED OVER 135 BILLION EUROS FROM 1968 TO THE PRESENT. DURING THE SEVENTH EDITION OF THE NATIONAL SEISMIC PREVENTION DAY, IN DECEMBER 2024, THE NEED TO SHIFT THE ATTENTION FROM RECONSTRUCTION TO PREVENTION HAS EMERGED
Earthquakes and the cost of prevention: a necessary investment
According to estimates presented during the event, organized by Inarcassa Foundation, National Council of Engineers e National Council of Architects, Planners, Landscapers and Conservatorsthe safety of approximately eighteen million residential buildings at risk would require a total investment of 219 billion euros, equal to seven billion per year for the next thirty years.
In his speech, the Minister for Civil Protection and Maritime Policies, Nello Musumeci, underlined the importance of acting promptly: «Let’s start planning and using the resources that have already been available for years».
Musumeci then highlighted the lack of adequate planning in the past: «Unfortunately, serious and concrete planning has been lacking. This is why today we announce the’launch of the national program for seismic prevention, which provides for an initial allocation of 250 million euros and a duration of at least ten years. Structural prevention must be the first objective of every government, at any level».
Secondary damage and long-term consequences
One of the central aspects addressed during the meeting concerns the secondary damage caused by earthquakes, often overlooked during the emergency and reconstruction phases. In addition to the loss of human lives and material damage, large-scale seismic events bring with them long-lasting consequences such as declines in GDP, unemployment, depopulation and destruction of cultural heritage.
The analysis presented examined three historical earthquakes – Valle del Belice, Sicily (1968), Friuli Venezia Giulia (1976) and Irpinia, Campania (1980) – highlighting the economic and social impact decades later.
The decline in GDP reached -2.8% in the Belice Valley and -12% in Irpinia, while Friuli recorded a growth of 20% thanks to a reconstruction that favored industrialization and economic development.
However, the phenomenon of unemployment has hit the areas of Belice and Irpinia hard, with rates reaching 25.5% and 27.3% respectively, well above the current national average of 5.8%. Depopulation has had devastating effects: -10% in the Belice Valley and -8.6% in Irpinia, contributing to the deterioration of the social fabric and the cultural impoverishment of local communities.
Andrea De Maio, president of the Inarcassa Foundation, reiterated the importance of prevention as a fundamental tool for reducing future risks: «It is clear that it would be more appropriate to mitigate and prevent, intervening at least on the most high-risk portion of buildings».
Then he added that «A national seismic prevention plan can represent an important first step, but must be accompanied by long-term actions, based on knowledge of the state of the real estate assets and on constant financing over time». But let’s examine the situation and its consequences in detail.
Historical insight: the main earthquakes in Italy
The seismic history of Italy is punctuated by dramatic events that have left deep wounds on the territory and communities. Each earthquake represented a challenge not only for the affected population but also for the institutions, forced to deal with the difficulties of reconstruction, the loss of human lives and the exorbitant economic costs.
In January 1968, a sequence of violent tremors shook the Belice Valley, in western Sicily. Between 14 and 15 January, the earthquake caused the deaths of 360 people and forced 57 thousand inhabitants to leave their homes, many of which were reduced to rubble. Reconstruction proved long and tiring, with an institutional response that lasted for decades without ever guaranteeing a complete economic rebirth for the affected communities.
The slowness of the recovery works and the precariousness of the housing solutions contributed to progressive depopulation, with effects that are still reflected today on the social fabric of the region.
The fate of Friuli Venezia Giulia was different, struck on 6 May 1976 by an earthquake of magnitude 6.5. This event caused the death of 990 people, devastated entire villages and caused extensive damage to infrastructure. However, Friuli became an emblematic case of effective and far-sighted reconstruction.
Thanks to an innovative management model, which directly involved the local population and municipal administrations, the region not only saw the destroyed territories restored but also witnessed significant economic growth. Within a few years, the local GDP increased by 20%, transforming a predominantly agricultural economy into a modern and competitive industrial hub, demonstrating how the crisis could be turned into opportunity.
Irpinia, Umbria and Marche
Much more devastating was the earthquake that struck Irpinia and Basilicata on 23 November 1980, shaking the heart of Southern Italy with a magnitude of 6.9. The earthquake caused over 2,500 victims and 300 thousand displaced people. The reconstruction was one of the most complex and expensive in Italian history, with an outlay of funds that exceeded thirty billion euros.
However, critical issues in the management of resources and delays in the distribution of funds left a legacy of a fragmented framework, in which many communities were never able to fully recover their economic and social fabric.
In 1997, between September and October, a new seismic swarm hit Umbria and the Marche, causing serious damage to Assisi and other nearby locations. With a magnitude that reached 6.1, the earthquake caused eleven victims and caused irreparable damage to the artistic heritage of the region.
The Basilica of San Francesco suffered devastating collapses, with the loss of priceless frescoes. The reconstruction, aimed at safeguarding and restoring the cultural heritage, allowed the recovery of the Basilica, a symbol not only of the wound inflicted, but also of the capacity for rebirth and conservation of Italian works of art.
The events of the new millennium
In 2009, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit the city of L’Aquila and the surrounding municipalities, causing 309 deaths and leaving over 65 thousand people homeless. This earthquake brought the whole of Abruzzo to its knees, destroying the historic center of the regional capital and radically altering the lives of its inhabitants.
The reconstruction, still ongoing after many years, has entailed costs that have exceeded 13.7 billion euros. Bureaucratic difficulties, delays and political disputes have slowed down the recovery of the Abruzzo town, with many areas still awaiting a full return to normality.
In May 2012, Emilia-Romagna was shaken by two similar violent events that occurred between 20 and 29 May. These earthquakes hit the industrial sector of the region hard, causing twenty-seven deaths and extensive damage to factories and warehouses.
Despite the relatively low human losses, the economic impact was significant, with thousands of businesses affected. A rapid mobilization for the reconstruction of the productive fabric was essential for the Emilian economy.
Amateur
The last major earthquake that marked the collective memory of the country was the one that devastated Central Italy on 24 August 2016, with its epicenter near Amatrice in the province of Rieti in Lazio. With a magnitude of 6.2, the earthquake caused 299 victims and entirely destroyed historic villages and mountain communities.
The images of the rubble of Amatrice and Accumoli went around the world, becoming a symbol of fragility and devastation. Reconstruction in these areas proceeds slowly, with difficulties linked to the geographical conformation and the delicate balance between modernization and conservation of the local heritage.
Prevention as an opportunity for growth
Moving from emergency logic to prevention is not only a moral duty but an opportunity to transform vulnerability into a lever for socio-economic development. Investing in seismic safety means not only saving lives and reducing reconstruction costs, but also promoting sustainable growth and preserving our country’s unique cultural heritage.
«The safety and well-being of citizens must be strategic objectives of politics.” declared Massimo Crusi, president of the National Council of Architects. «We need an innovative approach to territorial governance, with urban regeneration programs and particular attention to our cultural heritage. Prevention and maintenance are priorities: it’s about preserving our cultural identity.”
Sources
Inarcassa Foundation: analysis of the direct and indirect costs of earthquakes in Italy.
National Council of Engineers and Architects: data on Italian real estate at seismic risk.
National Earthquake Prevention Day 2024: speeches and declarations.
FAO, INGV, Today.it: historical and scientific data on the main earthquakes in Italy.