During The last 30 years the total arctic sea area has decreased every summer. This not only causes important changes in local ecosystems of the Arctic, It also affects climatic systems around the world.
Although The scientific efforts to understand the climatic changes of this distant region, the research is still in diapers. However, there are indications that indicate the existence of a relationship between the loss of the ice mantle arctic and the change in atmospheric circulation patterns, oceanic circulation and thermal gradients of the northern hemisphere.
Es Difficult to establish what effects these changes will have, but those years in which the Arctic has been especially hot Persistent and anomalous meteorological patterns have been observed that affected the rest of the world.
As the Arctic And the ice, feedback mechanisms, including a lower capacity for ice reflection (Albedo) and the release of the dangerous greenhouse gases of its length storage in permafrost (the permanently frozen soil layer)will cause an increase in world climate change.
The acceleration of the thaw in the Arctic
A study led by researchers from the Institute of Global Health of Barcelona (ISGlobal), a center promoted by the “La Caixa” Foundation, has used a novel methodology to unravel The influence of the loss of arctic sea ice on the climate of the planetisolating it from other factors related to climate change.
The study, published in the Journal Communications Earth and Environment, shows that, in a time scale, ice loss arctic It favors that the climate of the southwest of the United States (and California in particular) becomes drier medium, especially in winter. This phenomenon It would also affect the climate of Spain and Portugal, promoting conditions of greater moisture in winteralthough in this case the observed effect is weaker.
«There is a lot of scientific disagreement about the remote effects of the loss of sea ice in the Arctic. Until now, many studies have focused on long -term effects, a scale of centuries. Others have investigated The answer to the loss of sea ice with modeling configurations that artificially impose heat to melt sea ice, which can affect the simulated response, ”explains Ivija Cvijanovic, researcher of Isglobal and main author of the study.
According to Cvijanovic, «some jobs They have modified Antarctic and Arctic Marine Ice Coverage At the same time, which makes it difficult to discern their individual contributions. In our work we have developed a methodology to evaluate the impact of ice loss arctic Without adding any heat flow, and we have focused on the impacts that will be developed in a few decades »,
Study of three models
To get to these conclusions, andThe equipment used three models of variable complexity. In each of them, they made two sets of simulations, one with the historical amount of sea ice in the Arctic and another with a substantial decrease in marine ice coverage.
The DThat disposal of sea ice modifies the superficial albedo, that is, the reflectivity of the Arctic Oceanbut it also eliminates the isolation between the atmosphere and the ocean surface and affects salinity profiles. These local changes in turn drive a series of atmospheric and oceanic teleconexions that can spread far from the Arctic.
«It must be clarified that the conclusion is not necessarily that in the coming years it will rain less in California and more in the Western Mediterranean. In addition to the loss of the ice layer in the Arctic, hay Many other factors that respond to greenhouse gas emissions and affect the climate (atmospheric and oceanic feedback and circulation changes, antarctic sea loss of seafood, vegetation feedback, etc.), says Desislava Petrova, Isglobal researcher and last author of the study.
Difficulties in global predictions
In any case, he adds, «Understanding the influence of this separate phenomenon will help us to refine global predictions«.
«Despite the various influences in the climate system of our planet, it is interesting to observe that the anomalies in Atmospheric circulation patterns of the last decades show some similarities Surprising with the simulated patterns in our study, especially events such as the Californian drought of 2012-2016 ″, observes CVIJANOVIC.